The Game of Choices: The Monty Hall Problem
Does Intuition Deceive Us?
Imagine yourself standing before three doors. Behind one of them, a valuable prize. Behind the other two, nothing. You make your choice. But before revealing what’s behind your selected door, the host—who knows the answer—opens one of the empty doors and gives you a second chance: stick with your choice or switch doors. What do you do?
This is the famous "Monty Hall Problem," a mathematical dilemma that seems simple but challenges even the most rational thinkers. Intuition tells us to stick with our initial choice, as if changing our minds would betray our instincts. But mathematics tells a different story: switching doors doubles your chances of winning.
Why? At the start, there is a 2-in-3 chance that you picked the wrong door. When the host reveals an empty door, he doesn’t do it randomly—this new information changes the game. Now, the remaining door has a much higher probability of holding the prize. Yet, even with clear logic, many people resist the idea of changing their choice.
That’s because when faced with multiple possibilities, we tend to cling to our first choice, even without having the full picture. This is a cognitive bias called the anchoring effect, which can limit our understanding. And it reveals that, often, our perception is shaped by the fear of loss and the illusion of control.
The Reality Behind Decisions
Recently, a study conducted by behavioral psychologists demonstrated how choices made under pressure tend to be more impulsive and less informed. This study connects directly to the Monty Hall Problem, revealing the impact of cognitive biases on decision-making and how these factors can be manipulated to our advantage. The conclusion was clear: the willingness to review our decisions—and even change direction—is essential for making better choices, both in mathematics and in life.
☝🤓 By the Way... Did You Know?
The "Monty Hall Problem" was inspired by a game show called Let’s Make a Deal, which was popular in the United States during the 1960s and 70s. The name comes from the host, Monty Hall, who guided the show and offered contestants the chance to change their choices — and the mathematical dilemma that arose from this dynamic became world-famous.
The Dance Between Choice and Change
The resistance to changing a decision goes beyond mathematics. It is rooted in an internal narrative that associates change with failure, as if switching paths invalidates the previous journey. Just as the Monty Hall paradox teaches us, changing a logical decision often increases our chances of success.
When we make a decision, our mind creates an emotional attachment to the choice, generating a sense of security. However, the ability to adjust our trajectory, embrace the new, and review what has already been done is a powerful skill. When we accept that changing our minds is not a sign of weakness but an opportunity for improvement, we become more open to new possibilities — both in simple and complex decisions.
The same applies to learning. The more we allow ourselves to review, test, and adjust our knowledge, the more we expand our opportunities for growth. In many cases, in life itself, logical decisions will conflict with our concepts and emotions. By changing, we are not denying who we are but honoring who we are becoming.
💡📝 Now It’s Up to You
Imagine you are in the middle of a major project. The choices made at the beginning do not seem to be leading you where you want to go. You find yourself at a crossroads: stick with the path you started or review and start again in a new way. What will you do?
1 Reflect on the reason for your initial choice: Ask yourself why you made that decision at the beginning. What have you learned so far that could influence your new choice?
2 Assess the new information: Along the way, new perspectives emerge. How have the changes or challenges you encountered altered the course of your journey? Use this information to make a more informed decision.
3 Be flexible with your decisions: Remember that reviewing and even changing the course of your choices is not a sign of failure, but an opportunity to align more with your ultimate goal. Flexibility can be the key to success.
With that in mind, now reflect: how have you been dealing with difficult decisions in your life? Have you been afraid to change the course of your choices, or have you found confidence in making decisions? Allow yourself to explore these reflections and see how you can apply this lesson to your own journey. Changing your mind, just like in the Monty Hall Problem, might be the decision that increases your chances of success.